Seminário de pesquisa do PPGE – Conflict or compromise? Theory and evidence from Africa and Asia


Detalhes do Evento


No dia 23 de outubro, quarta-feira, a partir das 16h, o Programa de Pós-graduação em Economia (PPGE), em parceria com o Núcleo de Análise de Política Econômica (NAPE) promovem uma nova edição do seu tradicional seminário de pesquisa. Nesse dia, o programa recebe o professor Rogerio Bianchi Santarrosa, recém chegado de seu PhD na Insper/University of British Columbia, para a apresentação Conflict or compromise? Theory and evidence from Africa and Asia.

Devido à particular abrangência do tema de pesquisa de Rogerio, que envolve conflitos étnicos na África e na Ásia, o seminário é interessante não apenas para a Economia, mas também para a área de Relações Internacionais.

O evento, que acontece na sala 31A da FCE (Av. João Pessoa, 52), é gratuito e aberto a todos os interessados.

O texto Conflict or compromise? Theory and evidence from Africa and Asia pode ser consultado na íntegra no link disponibilizado pelo PPGE.

Resumo – Civil wars are a recurring phenomenon undermining development in weak states. Faced with the possibility of costly conflict, why don’t leaders share power? I investigate the role of an unexplored commitment problem, both theoretically and empirically. The model features a leader who can appease challengers by sharing power, but doing so increases their effectiveness at launching a rebellion. I show that commitment worsens as the opposition becomes stronger, and derive testable non-monotonic implications of group strength and distributional shocks on power-sharing and conflict. As challengers become stronger, the likelihood of inclusion (positive transfers) increases up to a threshold, beyond which the leader prefers to exclude an opposing group and face conflict. I test the model using data on politically relevant ethnic groups in Africa and Asia, their access to executive power, and armed organizations claiming to represent them. To that end, I use three complementary strategies: (i) within-country variation in population share to proxy for group strength; (ii) quasi-randomly split groups across countries; and (iii) conflict-inducing distributional economic shocks within a country, by combining geo-referenced data on the ethnic homelands, cropland maps and international prices. The empirical findings strongly accord with predictions of the theory. I then structurally estimate the model parameters and explore policy relevant counterfactuals, including the effects of democratization, changes in military capacity, financial aid, sanctions and quotas.

Mais informações pelo e-mail griebeler.marcelo@gmail.com.

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