{"id":120680,"date":"2025-10-09T07:10:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T10:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/jornal\/?p=120680"},"modified":"2025-10-14T09:40:32","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T12:40:32","slug":"present-effects-future-impacts-what-scientific-research-in-antarctica-has-to-say-on-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/jornal\/present-effects-future-impacts-what-scientific-research-in-antarctica-has-to-say-on-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Present effects, future impacts: what scientific research in Antarctica has to say on climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Science | Studies aim to assess the complexity and interconnections of phenomena, as well as emphasize the need for practical attitudes and urgent policies<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

*First published\u00a0in January 16, <\/strong>2025
*Photo: Ronaldo Bernardo, from the UFRGS Polar and Climate Center, holds a frozen ice testimonial collected at the Mertz Glacier (International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia)<\/em>

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

This article is part of Antarctica Special<\/a> (Especial Ant\u00e1rtica, in Portuguese), which compiles six articles spanning from the research and understanding of climate change to the daily routine of a crew who spent 60 days in an icebreaker ship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Climate change consists of long-term alterations in the temperatures and weather patterns of our planet. It might be propelled by natural causes, such as big volcanic eruptions, or human causes. The latter is the current leading factor \u2013 according to scientists, human activity has intensified climate change’s growing pace since the 1800s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

An 1.2\u00baC increase of the Earth’s average surface temperature \u2013 related to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, unplanned urban development, among other factors \u2013 is highlighted by the United Nations (UN) as the largest in the last 100,000 years<\/a>. Research shows that the last four decades were warmer than any other decade after 1850, and the period between 2011 and 2020 registered the highest temperatures on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHumankind has worked on causing this change, especially over the last 120 to 150 years. It is slower to overturn it than to initiate it,\u201d declares climatologist Venisse Schossler, professor at the Geosciences Institute at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) and research associate of the National Institute of Science and Technology of the Cryosphere<\/a> (INCT Cryosphere) and the Polar and Climate Center<\/a> (PCP\/UFRGS). Schossler, along with 60 researchers from seven other countries, is part of the team that has been leading the circumnavigation expedition<\/a> around the coast of Antarctica since 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The researcher mentions the steep reduction in ozone concentration, known as the \u201cozone hole\u201d, as an example of the atmospheric regeneration process complexity. The ozone layer, located in the stratosphere, is responsible for absorbing 90% of ultraviolet (UVB) radiation. Human exposure to this type of radiation is linked to the development of skin cancer, suppression of the immune system and premature aging, as well as damage to the eyesight. UVB rays also harm many life forms\u2019 early developmental stages, such as planktons, which are the foundation to aquatic food chains, thus provoking environmental imbalances. The 1987 Montreal Protocol<\/a> banned the production and consumption of substances responsible for the destruction of the ozone layer. CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) are among the many substances which have been extensively used as cooling agents and in aerosol sprays. They can remain active for 80 to 100 years after their release into the atmosphere. Therefore, as Schossler highlights, even with a ban, recovery is slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to global warming, the climatologist indicates that decreasing greenhouse gas emissions is only the starting point and stresses that an energetic transition is urgent. \u201cNo climatologist ignores it won\u2019t to be instantaneous. We know it is a transition, that is, society must slowly move towards not using fossil fuels anymore,” she emphasizes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second point relates to how urban areas are developed. The current vertical model allows for the creation of islands where the heat gets trapped and cannot escape. The scientist further explains that, in order to be adopted, energetic transitions need government incentives such as lowering taxes on solar power technology and services. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cMany countries are on the forefront already, especially European ones and China. They are running on this transition front and creating jobs and technologies. This is important for the world as a whole, even for developing countries that do not contribute as much to the emission of greenhouse gases.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\nVenisse Schossler<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Climate teleconnections<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Schossler is also a member of Notos \u2013 Climatology Laboratory<\/a>, a UFRGS Polar and Climate Center group that studies the relationship of climate change in the connections between Antarctica and the tropics. One of the goals is to understand how alterations in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation have affected Brazil and South America as a whole, with a special focus on states in southern Brazil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cRio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are exactly on the threshold of polar air mass inflows that come from Antarctica and warm air mass inflows filled with humidity from the equatorial region. When they meet, the worst storms, cyclones, and extreme events are formed.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\nVenisse Schossler<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The researcher draws attention to the climate teleconnection phenomenon: a link between events that occur in one place and influence other events in places further away. The calculations for these connections are determined through statistics based on atmospheric and oceanographic data from specialized websites. Local sample collection, such as snow samples, is necessary to prove these connections. \u201cWe interpret the events from previous years through them, like how the snow precipitates and holds bubbles that are atmospheric samples,” Schossler affirms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIce cores\u201d are being collected from 16 glaciers that have been moving in rapid speed and show ice mass loss. These samples will be melted for an analysis of water, gases, and other elements. Through this process, it is possible to identify, for example, connections between warm air masses or soot from the fires in the Amazonian rainforest and the Cerrado biome. The extracted material will also serve to understand how events such as El Ni\u00f1o influence the surrounding area of the Antarctic continent and, consequently, the rest of the planet. Moreover, it will be used to understand climate change associated to increased temperatures, carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>) emissions, and the hole in the ozone layer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThis data is essential not only for us to understand extreme events in the Southern Cone (Conesul, in Portuguese), but to predict weather periods that affect agriculture and the course of our food so intensely, for example. These are not only climate connections, but social and economic, too.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\nVenisse Schossler<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Researchers choose where the samples will be collected on a nautical chart. Jefferson Sim\u00f5es and Francisco Eliseu Aquino, from CPC-UFRGS, are pictured second and fifth, from left to right, respectively). Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
InternatioInternational Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE.
Venisse Schossler (in blue) and the UFRGS Polar and Climate Center team collect ice from the Mertz Glacier.
(Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marine biological carbon pump<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Pedro Augusto Mendes de Castro Melo, professor of the Oceanography department at the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), is part of the expedition for the first time. He is a researcher at Project Mephysto<\/a>, which integrates 7 Brazilian institutions across three different regions (4 in the Northeast; 2 in the Southeast; 1 in the South). There are also 2 institutions from the United States, 1 from Japan and 1 from Italy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main goal of Mephysto is the interdisciplinary investigation of physical, chemical, and biological processes in the structuring of planktonic ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a phytoplankton diversity hotspot. Melo’s research is linked to the ecology of plankton in general (phyto and zoo). Phytoplankton are microalgae that produce energy by removing CO2<\/sub> from the atmosphere in order to produce oxygen through a process called photosynthesis. \u201cIt is estimated that in every two breaths we take, one contains oxygen produced by a phytoplankton,\u201d declares the professor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zooplankton are the next in line, as they are the organism that links the energy produced by phytoplankton with the rest of the trophic chain. Hence, observing how zooplankton are present in the Antarctic surroundings and how such presence is related to matters of climate change becomes a fundamental task. The concept of a marine biological carbon pump, that is, sequestering and removing carbon from the atmosphere through biological processes and transferring it to the deep ocean, is a key-point in understand the process. Up to 30% of carbon excess is removed from the atmosphere through this process. Zooplankton’s participation in the marine biological carbon pump begins the moment they consume phytoplankton, using part of the energy generated by photosynthesis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although they are the same size as a grain of rice, zooplankton are capable of long migrations and can travel up to 500,000 meters in a day. \u201cIt is like doing an IronMan Triathlon every day,\u201d compares Melo. The researcher explains that when zooplankton migrate, they feed on phytoplankton present in light zones of the ocean. When they move to deeper zones, they take carbon with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cOur role is to observe the composition of the structure, if changes have occurred and how this relationship between zoo and phytoplankton is happening. Our goal is to understand how the marine biological carbon pump is working and if it is being affected by climate change.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\nPedro Augusto Melo<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Melo’s expedition group is collecting zooplankton samples in order to study their taxonomy and ecology. They also conduct experiments on herbivory or grazing. \u201cWe are going to assess this interaction, if the process is happening or not in an ideal way, and how it reflects the composition of phytoplankton herbivory rate,\u201d says the professor.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE.
Pedro Augusto Mendes de Castro Melo and fellow colleagues collect samples in an oceanographic station in the Antarctic ocean.
Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Another study will be conducted on mortality. It is possible to distinguish the proportion of dead and alive organisms in the sample on the moment of collection by applying pigment to the sample. As a result, the contribution of the carcasses to the marine biological carbon pump can be estimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melo highlights that plankton are excellent indicators to water quality and mass because temperature is a crucial factor to changes in the metabolism and the growth rate in a plankton community. The warmer the temperature, the more stratified the water column will be, a scenario that compromises nutrient circulation. With fewer nutrients, the phytoplankton growth rate decreases; and, as a consequence, it supports less zooplankton, impacting the entire trophic chain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cPlankton, in general, are excellent indicators because they encompass great diversity. From viruses and bacteria that are part of them, to chordates like fish and fish larvae. Many of these organisms have close relationships with certain temperature, salinity, and depth conditions. This way, we can understand a little bit of what is happening in the system or even notice a change in the community based on any physio-chemical alterations in the water.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\nPedro Augusto Melo<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The researcher points out that the ocean current that flows down the coast of Brazil to Antarctica is warm and nutrient-poor whereas the one that flows upwards from the Malvinas is cold and nutrient-rich. When the two meet, they create a diverse environment with two communities that mix in an area called a biodiversity hotspot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since it is a coastal expedition, the four Mephysto researchers\u2019 idea is to access the zones where the main interactions are happening, as the thaw or ice formation process and pre-melting layers occur mainly in this region. Their project also focuses on the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence and the Antarctic peninsula to understand how these changes are affecting extreme events and the interrelation between the physicochemical environment and biological behaviors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cAs an example, we have a completely different environment in Pernambuco. There are river flows, rain water, pollution, urban areas. We need to observe an ocean region that offers the most stability, like in Antarctica. The big achievement of this expedition is being able to really look and assess this planktonic communities that occur exactly where there is an intensification of this process\u201d<\/em><\/p>\nPedro Augusto Melo<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"

Researcher M\u00e1rcio Francelino Rocha digs into the soil at Bunger Hills, second biggest oasis in Antarctica. International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
Researcher Fabio Leal Viana Bones collects moss samples at Bunger Hills oasis, Antarctic continent. International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Pedro Augusto Mendes de Castro Melo with a krill. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact of climate change<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

In an 2022 interview<\/a> to the university radio, Antarctic Expedition coordinator Jefferson Sim\u00f5es talked about the losses that can already be felt and warned about the future impacts climate change can cause. Among them are the processes happening at the edge of the frozen part of the ocean, which stem from carbon dioxide absorption. Sim\u00f5es highlighted ocean acidification, which threatens shell formation for many microorganisms, and the effort of many species in adapting to water that is becoming sweeter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scientist reported that a northern part of Antarctica is becoming greener. As a result, some islands exhibit expansion of grassy fields, which caused penguin species to migrate south in search of survival. In addition, some fish species that were not present before are penetrating the Antarctic ocean. \u201cEmperor penguins as a species are already considered to be endangered for the next 50 to 100 years. There have been changes in atmospheric circulation, with a tendency of stronger winds around Antarctica,\u201d said the coordinator. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To Sim\u00f5es, the most significant consequence is the rise in sea levels. \u201cThe ice that is on the continent is what matters: in some scenarios, until 2100, losing mass represents an average increase in sea level ranging from 30cm to 90cm,\u201d he highlights. To him, either case represents the best and the worst outcome. However, they do not account for a non-linear behavior that might occur, that is, the process happening faster due to the destabilization of West Antarctica, which might lead to sea levels rising a few meters in the next 200 or 300 years. The challenge here is to make the countries comply with the Paris Agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cKyoto [Protocol] has been ‘dead\u2019 for over 10 years, and Paris risks the same fate. If nothing is done, global climate change rate will surpass social, political, and economic responses that facilitate the adaptation.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\nJefferson Sim\u00f5es<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

He reinforces that, depending on the degree of said transformations, human society and other species have more resilience to its impacts. However, it is crucial to follow negotiations on a political level globally. If not, there are no means of resolving the situation. \u201cWe cannot go into negationist mode when it comes to such changes. Antarctica, because of its sensitivity to climate, works as an early warning to the changes that are happening on a global scale,\u201d Jefferson Sim\u00f5es warns. <\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
CPC UFRGS team ice drilling. International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
International Antarctic Coastal Circumnavigation Expedition \u2013 ICCE. Photo\/Video \u00a9 Anderson Astor and Marcelo Curia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Translated into English by Luiza Estivalet Pinto<\/strong>, undergraduate student enrolled in the course “Supervised Translation Training I (English)” of the Undergraduate Program in Language and Literature, under the supervision and translation revision of Professor Elizamari R. Becker (P.h.D.) – IL\/UFRGS.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

:: Read in portuguese<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Efeitos no presente, impactos para o futuro: o que a pesquisa cient\u00edfica na Ant\u00e1rtica tem a dizer sobre as mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas<\/a><\/blockquote>