![\"Ensemble](\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/lsh\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/APRESENTACAO_TESE_181212.png\")
<\/a>Figure 1. Ensemble forecasts of a small flood on the Paraopeba river<\/p><\/div>\n
We are now developing methods of ensemble flood forecasting using ensembles of quantitative precipitation forecasts in Brazil. Ensemble forecasting techniques are being tested in the S\u00e3o Francisco river basin upstream of the city of Pirapora, including the Tres Marias reservoir. Example\u00a0results are shown\u00a0for one of the tributaries of the S\u00e3o Fransico river, the Paraopeba river on Figure 1.<\/p>\n
Tests are being run also on the Tocantins river basin, upstream of its confluence with the Araguaia river (309 thousand square kilometers). In this case study we are analysing the benefits of including satellite rainfall estimates and merging it with gauge data.<\/p>\n
Other test basins are located in South Brazil (rivers Uruguay, Pelotas and Taquari – see photo).<\/p>\n
<\/a>The Taquari-Antas river during a flood<\/p><\/div>\n
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Publications related:<\/p>\n
FAN, F. M. ; SCHWANENBERG, D. ; COLLISCHONN, W.<\/a> ; WEERTS, A. . Verification of inflow into hydropower reservoirs using ensemble forecasts of the TIGGE database for large scale basins in Brazil<\/a>. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, v. 4, p. 196-227, 2015.<\/p>\n Fan, F.M., Collischonn, W., Quiroz, K.J., Sorribas, M.V., Buarque, D.C. and Siqueira, V.A. (2015), Flood forecasting on the Tocantins River using ensemble rainfall forecasts and real-time satellite rainfall estimates<\/a>. Journal of Flood Risk Management. doi: 10.1111\/jfr3.12177<\/p>\n Schwanenberg, Dirk., Fan, Fernando Mainardi., Naumann, Steffi., Kuwajima, Julio Issao., Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado., Assis dos Reis, Alberto. 2015. Short-Term Reservoir Optimization for Flood Mitigation under Meteorological and Hydrological Forecast Uncertainty<\/a>. Water Resources Management, 0920-4741, 1-17, http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/s11269-014-0899-1.<\/p>\n FAN, F. M. ; MELLER, A. ; COLLISCHONN, W. . Incorpora\u00e7\u00e3o de filtro num\u00e9rico de separa\u00e7\u00e3o de escoamento na assimila\u00e7\u00e3o de dados para previs\u00e3o de vaz\u00f5es utilizando modelagem hidrol\u00f3gica<\/a>. Revista Brasileira de Recursos H\u00eddricos, v. 20, p. 472-483, 2015.<\/p>\n MELLER, A. ; COLLISCHONN, W. ; FAN, F. M. ; BUARQUE, D. C. ; PAIVA, R. C. D. ; DIAS, P. ; MOREIRA, D. . Previs\u00e3o de Cheias por Conjunto em Curto Prazo. <\/a>Revista Brasileira de Recursos H\u00eddricos, v. 19, p. 33-49, 2014.<\/p>\n Fan, Fernando Mainardi ; COLLISCHONN, WALTER ; MELLER, ADALBERTO ; BOTELHO, LUIZ C\u00c9SAR MENDES . Ensemble streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The S\u00e3o Francisco river case study. <\/a>Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam) We research new techniques for hydrological forecasting, focusing on flood forecasting, inflow to reservoirs forecasting, and streamflow forecasting based on quantitative rain forecasting. We are now developing methods of ensemble flood forecasting using ensembles of quantitative precipitation forecasts in Brazil. … Continue reading <\/sup>, v. SI, p. 10.1016\/j.jhydr, 2014.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"