– rain forecast up to 3.5 days in advance, by the BRAMS meteorological model (5km resolution – http:\/\/previsaonumerica.cptec.inpe.br\/golMapWeb\/DadosPages?id=Brams5)<\/p>\n
– defluent outflow of hydroelectric power plant complex in Rio das Antas (UHEs July 14, Castro Alves and Monte Claro);<\/p>\n
After the standardization of all this information, the hydrological model MGB-IPH is initialized and the system generates a figure with the result of the forecast for the city of Encantado, which can be accessed directly in the link below (clicking on the icon on the map) :<\/p>\n
http:\/\/mapa-taquari.ufrgs.br<\/a><\/p>\n In the figure, the forecasts are presented with the 2 models mentioned previously, besides a third forecast that considers only the precipitation already occurred (observed). In addition, four reference thresholds in relation to river flow are shown, with the first three referring to the alert levels of the SACE-CPRM system and the last referring to a 4-5 year return flow time (with possible floods of houses in the urban area):<\/p>\n – observation threshold (yellow line – flow referring to the dimension of 560 cm) – CPRM;<\/p>\n – alert threshold (orange line – flow referring to the 870 cm dimension) – CPRM;<\/p>\n – flood start threshold (red line – flow for 950 cm height) – CPRM;<\/p>\n – urban flood threshold in Encantado – 10 m above normal level (1,250 cm) (violet line)<\/p>\n The results should be monitored at 8 and 20 o’clock, as precipitation forecasts tend to change over time according to the evolution observed in the atmosphere. This means that if a given forecast indicates exceedance of the flood threshold, it will not necessarily be exceeded, but would only occur if all the rain expected at that time actually happened.<\/p>\n However, the results should be interpreted cautiously, since the system is in an experimental phase, in need of future adjustments, in addition to uncertainties related to rainfall forecasts. In this sense, it is important to verify the agreement of the different models including evaluation of successive predictions. If these models have a similar result after 2 or 3 predictions, they become more reliable, while the total divergence or non-persistence of the forecasts in time can be considered doubtful.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Taquari River Medium Term Flow Forecasting System is being developed by the Large Scale Hydrology Research Group of the IPH-UFRGS in the context of the project Development and support for the implementation of an integrated strategy to prevent risks … Continue reading ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/lsh\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/encantado_ETA15km-300x144.png\")
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