{"id":4540,"date":"2026-10-19T09:42:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/?p=4540"},"modified":"2026-10-19T09:42:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:42:41","slug":"seminario-de-pesquisa-21-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/seminario-de-pesquisa-21-10\/","title":{"rendered":"Semin\u00e1rio de Pesquisa 21\/10"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seminario-EA-Daniel-Cerqueira-1024x1024-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seminario-EA-Daniel-Cerqueira-1024x1024-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seminario-EA-Daniel-Cerqueira-150x150-1.png 150w, https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seminario-EA-Daniel-Cerqueira-300x300-1.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seminario-EA-Daniel-Cerqueira-768x768-1.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seminario-EA-Daniel-Cerqueira-.png 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Semin\u00e1rio de Pesquisa (EA) 21\/10<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-0-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/seminario-de-pesquisa-11-12-2024\/#respond\">Deixe um coment\u00e1rio<\/a>&nbsp;\/&nbsp;<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/category\/seminarios\/economia-aplicada\/\">Economia Aplicada<\/a>,&nbsp;<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/category\/seminarios\/\">Semin\u00e1rios de Pesquisa<\/a>&nbsp;\/ Por&nbsp;Helena Camillo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ocorrer\u00e1 no dia\u00a0<strong>21\/10\/2026, quarta-feira, \u00e0s 14h<\/strong>\u00a0na sala\u00a0<strong>401A \u2013 FCE<\/strong>,\u00a0o Semin\u00e1rio de Pesquisa\u00a0<strong>\u201cMULAS DO TR\u00c1FICO NO<\/strong> <strong>BRASIL:<\/strong> <strong>PERFIL SOCIOECON\u00d4MICO,<\/strong> <strong>REMUNERA\u00c7\u00c3O E CARACTER\u00cdSTICAS ASSOCIADAS<\/strong> <strong>\u00c0<\/strong> <strong>REINCID\u00caNCIA<\/strong> <strong>POLICIAL\u201d<\/strong>, na \u00e1rea de Economia Aplicada, ministrado pelo <em>Daniel Cerqueira (IPEA)<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Resumo:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apesar da relev\u00e2ncia do tr\u00e1fico de drogas para a seguran\u00e7a p\u00fablica brasileira, pouco se sabe sobre os indiv\u00edduos respons\u00e1veis pelo transporte dos entorpecentes, conhecidos como mulas do tr\u00e1fico. Este artigo apresenta evid\u00eancias in\u00e9ditas a partir de uma base de dados constru\u00edda com informa\u00e7\u00f5es extra\u00eddas dos Boletins de Vida Pregressa de pessoas presas em flagrante por tr\u00e1fico de drogas em procedimentos conduzidos pela Pol\u00edcia Federal em 2021. A base re\u00fane informa\u00e7\u00f5es socioecon\u00f4micas, familiares, criminais e operacionais de 1.478 indiv\u00edduos envolvidos no transporte de coca\u00edna, maconha e outras subst\u00e2ncias. Inicialmente, descrevemos o perfil das pessoas presas, os principais meios de transporte, as origens e destinos declarados, as quantidades apreendidas e a remunera\u00e7\u00e3o prometida. Em seguida, analisamos as caracter\u00edsticas associadas \u00e0 reincid\u00eancia policial por meio de modelos Logit e Probit. A taxa observada de reincid\u00eancia policial \u00e9 de 23,1%. Os resultados mostram uma popula\u00e7\u00e3o majoritariamente masculina, jovem-adulta, de baixa renda e com concentra\u00e7\u00e3o em baixa escolaridade. Nas regress\u00f5es multivariadas, o uso declarado de drogas il\u00edcitas aparece consistentemente associado a maior probabilidade de reincid\u00eancia, enquanto escolaridade superior tende a se associar a menor reincid\u00eancia. No entanto, os fatores associados \u00e0 reincid\u00eancia diferem substancialmente conforme o tipo de droga transportada, a natureza da rota, se nacional ou internacional, e as caracter\u00edsticas familiares dos transportadores. O estudo contribui para a literatura ao disponibilizar evid\u00eancias quantitativas sobre um segmento pouco estudado do mercado ilegal de drogas e ao oferecer subs\u00eddios para pol\u00edticas p\u00fablicas voltadas \u00e0 preven\u00e7\u00e3o da reincid\u00eancia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Semin\u00e1rio de Pesquisa (EA) 21\/10 Deixe um coment\u00e1rio&nbsp;\/&nbsp;Economia Aplicada,&nbsp;Semin\u00e1rios de Pesquisa&nbsp;\/ Por&nbsp;Helena Camillo Ocorrer\u00e1 no dia\u00a021\/10\/2026, quarta-feira, \u00e0s 14h\u00a0na sala\u00a0401A \u2013 FCE,\u00a0o Semin\u00e1rio de Pesquisa\u00a0\u201cMULAS DO TR\u00c1FICO NO BRASIL: PERFIL SOCIOECON\u00d4MICO, REMUNERA\u00c7\u00c3O E CARACTER\u00cdSTICAS ASSOCIADAS \u00c0 REINCID\u00caNCIA POLICIAL\u201d, na \u00e1rea de Economia Aplicada, ministrado pelo Daniel Cerqueira (IPEA). Resumo: Apesar da relev\u00e2ncia do tr\u00e1fico de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":4541,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia-aplicada","category-seminarios"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4540"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4542,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4540\/revisions\/4542"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppge\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}