{"id":2543,"date":"2025-10-29T10:16:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T13:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/?p=2543"},"modified":"2025-10-29T10:16:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T13:16:09","slug":"ciclo-de-seminarios-2025-prof-dr-marcelo-perlin-ea-ufrgs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/ciclo-de-seminarios-2025-prof-dr-marcelo-perlin-ea-ufrgs\/","title":{"rendered":"Ciclo de Semin\u00e1rios 2025 \u2013 Prof. Dr. Marcelo Perlin (EA\/UFRGS)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Temos o prazer de convidar a todos para mais um semin\u00e1rio do Programa de P\u00f3s-Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Estat\u00edstica da UFRGS (PPGEst-UFRGS)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>T\u00edtulo:<\/strong> Can AI beat a naive portfolio? An experiment with anonymized\u00a0data.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Short Bio:<\/strong> Marcelo Scherer Perlin: Possui gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Administra\u00e7\u00e3o pela UFSM (2005), Mestrado em Administra\u00e7\u00e3o pela UFRGS (2007) e PhD em Finan\u00e7as pela Reading University\/UK (2010). Atualmente \u00e9 professor associado da Escola de Administra\u00e7\u00e3o da UFRGS. Durante o doutorado trabalhou como pesquisador assistente para o Banco Central da Inglaterra (Bank of England). Possui d\u00e9cadas de experi\u00eancia em programa\u00e7\u00e3o voltada a an\u00e1lise de dados e desenvolvimento de softwares relacionados \u00e0 pesquisa cient\u00edfica em R e Python. Mais detalhes podem ser acessados em https:\/\/msperlin.com\/.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Resumo:<\/strong> Using anonymized data from the United States (U.S.) market, we evaluate the performance of Google\u2019s main LLM (Large Language Model) Gemini 1.5 Flash in making investment decisions. Unlike other studies, we query the LLM for different investment horizons (1 to 36 months) and types of financial information (financial data, price data, and a combination of both). Running a total of 30,000 simulations for 1,522 companies over 20 years of data, we find that Gemini does not consistently outperform a naive portfolio and the S&amp;P 500 index in terms of returns and Sharpe ratios. Additionally, our findings indicate a decline in risk adjusted investment performance as the investment horizon extends.<\/p>\n<p>Joint work with Cristian R. Foguesatto, Fernanda M. M\u00fcller and Marcelo\u00a0B.\u00a0Righi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Data: 04\/11\/2025<br \/>\nHor\u00e1rio: 13:30<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>O semin\u00e1rio acontecer\u00e1 na modalidade <strong>H\u00cdBRIDA<\/strong>:<br \/>\n&#8211; Presencial: pr\u00e9dio 43124 &#8211; sala 106 &#8211; NAPEAD\/POLO<br \/>\n&#8211; Online: https:\/\/mconf.ufrgs.br\/webconf\/ppgest<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Temos o prazer de convidar a todos para mais um semin\u00e1rio do Programa de P\u00f3s-Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Estat\u00edstica da UFRGS (PPGEst-UFRGS). T\u00edtulo: Can AI beat a naive portfolio? An experiment with anonymized\u00a0data. Short Bio: Marcelo Scherer Perlin: Possui gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Administra\u00e7\u00e3o pela UFSM (2005), Mestrado em Administra\u00e7\u00e3o pela UFRGS (2007) e PhD em Finan\u00e7as pela Reading &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/ciclo-de-seminarios-2025-prof-dr-marcelo-perlin-ea-ufrgs\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Ciclo de Semin\u00e1rios 2025 \u2013 Prof. Dr. Marcelo Perlin (EA\/UFRGS)<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2543"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2543"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2549,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2543\/revisions\/2549"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ufrgs.br\/ppgest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}