We research new techniques for hydrological forecasting, focusing on flood forecasting, inflow to reservoirs forecasting, and streamflow forecasting based on quantitative rain forecasting.
Figure 1. Ensemble forecasts of a small flood on the Paraopeba river
We are now developing methods of ensemble flood forecasting using ensembles of quantitative precipitation forecasts in Brazil. Ensemble forecasting techniques are being tested in the São Francisco river basin upstream of the city of Pirapora, including the Tres Marias reservoir. Example results are shown for one of the tributaries of the São Fransico river, the Paraopeba river on Figure 1.
Tests are being run also on the Tocantins river basin, upstream of its confluence with the Araguaia river (309 thousand square kilometers). In this case study we are analysing the benefits of including satellite rainfall estimates and merging it with gauge data.
Other test basins are located in South Brazil (rivers Uruguay, Pelotas and Taquari – see photo).
The Taquari-Antas river during a flood
Publications related:
FAN, F. M. ; SCHWANENBERG, D. ; COLLISCHONN, W. ; WEERTS, A. . Verification of inflow into hydropower reservoirs using ensemble forecasts of the TIGGE database for large scale basins in Brazil. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, v. 4, p. 196-227, 2015.
Fan, F.M., Collischonn, W., Quiroz, K.J., Sorribas, M.V., Buarque, D.C. and Siqueira, V.A. (2015), Flood forecasting on the Tocantins River using ensemble rainfall forecasts and real-time satellite rainfall estimates. Journal of Flood Risk Management. doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12177
Schwanenberg, Dirk., Fan, Fernando Mainardi., Naumann, Steffi., Kuwajima, Julio Issao., Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado., Assis dos Reis, Alberto. 2015. Short-Term Reservoir Optimization for Flood Mitigation under Meteorological and Hydrological Forecast Uncertainty. Water Resources Management, 0920-4741, 1-17, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0899-1.
FAN, F. M. ; MELLER, A. ; COLLISCHONN, W. . Incorporação de filtro numérico de separação de escoamento na assimilação de dados para previsão de vazões utilizando modelagem hidrológica. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, v. 20, p. 472-483, 2015.
MELLER, A. ; COLLISCHONN, W. ; FAN, F. M. ; BUARQUE, D. C. ; PAIVA, R. C. D. ; DIAS, P. ; MOREIRA, D. . Previsão de Cheias por Conjunto em Curto Prazo. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, v. 19, p. 33-49, 2014.
Fan, Fernando Mainardi ; COLLISCHONN, WALTER ; MELLER, ADALBERTO ; BOTELHO, LUIZ CÉSAR MENDES . Ensemble streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The São Francisco river case study. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam)
, v. SI, p. 10.1016/j.jhydr, 2014.