Seminário de Pesquisa 27/05 – Economia Aplicada
Ocorrerá no dia 27/05/2026, quarta-feira, às 14h na sala 401 A – FCE, o Seminário de Pesquisa “Bitcoin’s halving events and the fractal nature of mining energy consumption.”, na área de Economia Aplicada, ministrado por Lucas Mussoi Almeida (FGV e Exponential Science.).
Resumo:
This study addresses a central critique of blockchain technology by examining the long-term energy consumption dynamics of Bitcoin’s proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism. While the energy intensity of Bitcoin mining is well documented, the influence of its programmed halving events on consumption patterns remains insufficiently understood. Utilizing data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, this paper investigates whether these endogenous supply shocks induce measurable regime shifts in energy use, contextualized by exogenous regulatory interventions such as China’s mining ban. Employing asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), the findings reveal that Bitcoin’s energy dynamics exhibit a complex, asymmetric multifractal structure that has evolved significantly across halving epochs. Early periods were characterized by strong multifractality and persistent heterogeneity during consumption declines, reflecting unconstrained operational expansion. A transition toward operational maturity emerged following the China ban, marked by converging scaling behaviors. A paradigm shift occurred after the fourth halving, wherein long-range correlations began to dominate fat-tailed distributions, suggesting that structural dependencies now suppress volatile expansions. The results further indicate that miner responsiveness is scale-dependent. Notably, Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) precipitated significant cross-chain effects, evidenced by a statistically significant reduction in the persistence of Bitcoin’s energy consumption dynamics.