Seminário de Pesquisa 28/07
Deixe um comentário / Economia Aplicada, Seminários de Pesquisa / Por Helena Camillo
Ocorrerá no dia 28/07/2026, terça-feira, às 14h na sala 401A – FCE, o Seminário de Pesquisa “When is an Inflation Anchor Repaired”, na área de Economia do Desenvolvimento, ministrado pelo Prof. Dr. Paulo Medeiros (UFRN).
Resumo:
When is an inflation anchor repaired after a high-inflation episode? This paper distinguishes accumulated evidence about the relative performance of competing forecasting models from the share of private decision processes still using the high-inflation model. Both states are embedded in a New Keynesian model with a feedback loop: the forecasting composition shapes expected inflation and current macroeconomic outcomes, realized inflation changes the models’ relative predictive performance, and the resulting evidence governs subsequent model replacement. Repair therefore requires more than eliminating a self-sustaining high-inflation state; the forecasting legacy inherited from that state must also lose its ability to sustain high inflation. Under a common switching threshold, the recognition and replacement stages admit closed-form characterizations, and the finite-horizon policy requirement converges geometrically to the stationary-elimination threshold as the horizon lengthens. With heterogeneous thresholds, the high-inflation state and the tipping point separating it from the low-inflation state disappear in a saddle-node bifurcation, while the inherited economy may remain near the vanished state for a prolonged period. As policy approaches the bifurcation from above, repair time diverges at an inverse-square-root rate, implying that the additional policy response required to meet a long deadline declines at an inverse-square rate. Uniform changes in model-reconsideration frequency alter the repair clock without necessarily moving the stationary boundary, whereas asymmetric adoption and abandonment rates shift the boundary itself. Numerical exercises show that substantial disinflation can precede both model replacement and systemic repair.